Milwaukee @ N.Y. METS
Milwaukee -1½ +127 over N.Y. METS

Pinnacle -1½ +127 BET365 -1½ +125 SportsInteraction -1½ +125 BetOnline -1½ Bookmaker -1½ +125

Posted at 2:30 PM EST. 

Milwaukee -1½ +127 over N.Y. METS

7:10 PM EST. "Do you want to step in front of a freight train?" This is a question that we often ask ourselves when deep diving into these games and more often than not, the answer is an easy "no." Enter the efficient market.

The Mets took two of three from the Yankees in a high profile weekend Subway Series that saw the Senior Circuit outscore Juniors 20-12. The two Big Apple players played a doubleheader yesterday that saw the Mets take game one 10-5, with the Pinstripes saving the sweep with a 4-2 win in the nightcap. The crooked numbers the Mets put in their two victories must have resonated in the minds of the market, as New York has gone from a +150 or so pooch to the modest price you see now.

The Brewers saw their 11 game win streak come to an end yesterday, and we've already read and heard enough to know that it might be time to let go of an old angle. That would be when a team ends a winning streak, they are a good fade because they can "exhale." Take a break. Relax. We were writing about that shit years ago, but it appears the talking heads and the efficient market have caught up, which means it's time to evolve. Really, are we to believe the Crew aren't going to be pumped to hit Queens for their first trip to New York this season? Is Willy Adames not going to continue seeing beach balls up there just because of a sleepy Sunday against the Pirates? Maybe he and the boys were just up late after watching the Bucks punch their ticket to The Finals. What about Brandon Woodruff (RHP - MIL), Milwaukee’s legit ace? Is his head going to be down on the way to the mound? We doubt it.

And what about Tylor Megill (RHP - NYM)? Well, the rookie has impressed, and we're not going to slag him, but the sample size is small. Moreover, counting on these Mets, especially after they punched up and took down the Yankees (even if they are going bad), cannot be ignored. If there is potential for a letdown here, it may be with the home side.

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Our Pick

Milwaukee -1½ +127 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.54)

Baltimore -1 +170 over DETROIT
Cincinnati -1 +230 over N.Y. METS
Colorado -1 +200 over SAN DIEGO