Miami @ ATLANTA
Miami -1 +247 over ATLANTA

Pinnacle -1½ +247 BET365 -1½ +215 SportsInteraction N/A BetOnlin-1½ +240 Bookmaker N/A

Posted at 11:45 PM EST. 

Miami -1½ +247 over ATLANTA

1:20 PM EST. At the age of 37, Charlie Morton (RHP - ATL) is one tough cookie, which is why the Braves are priced so high. Dude has 100 K’s in 87 frames with just 29 walks issued. He also has the support of a 15% swing & miss rate. With Morton’s BB% history and ability to limit hard contact, his success is sustainable. That said, Atlanta is under .500. The Braves are 8-8 when Morton starts so one could suggest that this is a 50/50 proposition. Furthermore, Miami’s starter has looked just as good.

Atlanta scored twice yesterday despite three errors by the Marlins. In Friday night’s opener, Atlanta had two hits and scored once. That’s three runs in the past two games and three runs or fewer in seven of its past 10 games. There is an inherent risk of getting behind teams that are gripping the bat tightly and not producing. Today, the Braves figure to be gripping the bats even tighter, as they will perform in front of 40,000+ on this 4th of July holiday. The Fish will come in relaxed and with zero pressure.

Then there’s Zach Thompson (RHP - MIA) who is missing bats with a 15% swing & miss rate and 34% K% in four games started. The strikeouts should be decent versus Atlanta's 25.3% K% vs. RHP. On June 12, Thompson struck out six Braves batters in five scoreless innings. In seven away innings, he has eight strikeouts while giving up two earned runs. Overall, he’s struck out 25 in 18 innings with six walks issued. It’s also worth noting that Miami’s Garrett Cooper has been swinging one of the hottest bats in the game since coming off the DL. Dude has 10 hits in 19 AB’s with two jacks since his return.

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Our Pick

Miami -1 +247 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.94)

Baltimore -1 +170 over DETROIT
Cincinnati -1 +230 over N.Y. METS
Colorado -1 +200 over SAN DIEGO