Miami @ ATLANTA
ATLANTA -1 +159 over Miami

Pinnacle -1½ +159 BET365 -1½ +155 SportsInteraction -1½ +150 BetOnlin-1½ +154 Bookmaker -1½ +155

Posted at 12:30 PM EST. 

ATLANTA -1½ +159 over Miami

4:10 PM EST. The Marlins burned through most of their quality bullpen arms in that 1-0 shutout last night after Pablo Lopez hit Ronald Acuna Jr. with the first pitch he threw. A scene created by Braves manager Brian Snitker led to Lopez's ejection. While it might have been an accident, one could almost forgive the Marlins if it wasn't, as Acuna has destroyed them over his young career. In 52 games against Miami, he is hitting .330 with 12 doubles, one triple, 20 homers and 49 RBI. Fair or not, the Fish are in a tough spot today if Sandy Alcantara (RHP - MIA) does not pitch deep into this ball game. We'll not torch Alcantara, because frankly, he doesn't deserve it, but his surface numbers are getting a ton of attention from the market, which is why this number is coming down. As starting pitchers become less and less impactful over time, more attention needs to be paid to these bullpens. Almost every night, we see lead changes seemingly as soon as a pitcher that is dealing gets pulled.

Some of the greatest thinkers in history have pondered, "Where's the beef?" Well, we found it, er...him. Enter 6'7" 250 lbs Kyle Muller (LHP - ATL), who will take the bump today for the Braves. Muller is a former second round pick (44th overall) out of Dallas Jesuit College Prep and you may remember that we backed him last Saturday. Muller fanned nine Reds hitters in five innings that day on route to a 4-0 victory. While the sample size is small, a 15.7% swing and miss rate is worth writing home about. The Braves were shut out last night in the opener, but still won while the Fish can’t get out of their own way on the road. It was just two games ago that Atlanta dropped 20 on the Mets. A fine reminder that the Braves can pop at any time, while the Marlins struggle greatly to score runs, especially against left-handed pitching.

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Our Pick

ATLANTA -1 +159 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.18)

Baltimore -1 +170 over DETROIT
Cincinnati -1 +230 over N.Y. METS
Colorado -1 +200 over SAN DIEGO