Texas @ SEATTLE
Texas -1 +207 over SEATTLE

Pinnacle -1½ +207 BET365 -1½ +165 SportsInteraction N/A BetOnlin-1½ +200 Bookmaker N/A

Posted at 12:30 PM EST. 

Texas -1½ +207 over SEATTLE

10:10 PM EST. Jordan Lyles (LHP - SEA) makes his 16th start of the year, thus, he’s been answering the bell every fifth day. Some games are good, some are not so good and some aren’t even worth looking at. Jordan Lyles isn’t going to save anyone’s fantasy team but he generally throws strikes and usually gives his team a chance to win. This wager is not about backing Lyles, it’s about fading the M’s and their weak offensive numbers vs lefties after a walkoff win last night. It’s also about fading Seattle’s starter.

Marco Gonzales (LHP - SEA) started five games in April, subsequently missed all of May before returning in June to post a 4.66 ERA over four starts. He’ll now make his 10th start of the year and he should never be priced in this range. There are at least three reasons not to trust him. First, his xERA is always higher than his ERA. Second, his xBB% history is great, but it’s also unsustainable based on the percentage of balls that miss the plate. His K% is not supported by his weak swing & miss miss rate of 9%. Dude tops off at 88 MPH. Of all the small 2021 samples in the league, this is one of the most suspicious, which leaves us reverting back to his awful years prior. Marco Gonzales is a horrible starting pitcher.

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Our Pick

Texas -1 +207 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.14)

Baltimore -1 +170 over DETROIT
Cincinnati -1 +230 over N.Y. METS
Colorado -1 +200 over SAN DIEGO
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