Tampa Bay @ TORONTO
Tampa Bay -1 +163 over TORONTO

Pinnacle -1½ +163 BET365 -1½ +155 SportsInteraction N/A BetOnlin-1½ +161 Bookmaker N/A

Posted at 12:30 PM EST. 

Tampa Bay -1½ +163 over TORONTO

7:07 PM EST. Looking over the results over the past few weeks, we’re seeing just a fraction of games being decided by just one run, therefore, we’re going to continue to play the run-line during the hot summer months because the value is so much greater.

Alex Manoah (RHP - TOR )is overvalued in this home turn against the Rays, thanks in part to a 3.34 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through the first six starts of his career. However, he's been helped by a low 23% hit rate and high 85% strand rate, leaving him with a 4.45 xERA. The Rays were a bottom-10 offense in June (.689 OPS), but for the season, they've been among the league's best road teams, with a .723 OPS in away games.

Luis Patino (RHP - TB) is one of the most exciting--and youngest starting prospects made his debut last year and struggled with control. This year looks a bit different, as he’s only walked four batters in 15 frames while striking out 19. The kid has a blazing fastball, his slider project as plus, and his change-up shows plus potential. We've gotten a bit spoiled over the past few years with young phenoms hitting the ground running and we really don’t know what’s in store for Patino tonight in terms of length but whatever the case may be, Tampa knows how to manage their pitchers. Once the game is inevitably handed over to the pens, give Tampa a big edge. The Blue Jays are starting to labor in a big way so let’s continue to take back some great value against them when the situation looks good. The Rays are a great team that’s tough to beat.

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Our Pick

Tampa Bay -1 +163 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.26)

Baltimore -1 +170 over DETROIT
Cincinnati -1 +230 over N.Y. METS
Colorado -1 +200 over SAN DIEGO