Miami -1 +165 over ATLANTA

Pinnacle -1½ +165 BET365 -1½ +155 SportsInteraction N/A BetOnlin-1½ +160 Bookmaker N/A

Posted at 12:30 PM EST. 

Miami -1½ +165 over ATLANTA

7:20 PM EST. Well, Pablo Lopez (RHP - MIA) and the Marlins were rained out yesterday and thus, if we trusted he was undervalued yesterday before a rainout, certainly he’s undervalued again today. We repeat, Pablo Lopez isn’t good, he’s great. At the age of 25, his pitching IQ is off the charts. This pitch-mix tinkerer has found a winning formula with a wicked change up (20% swing & miss rate) a cut fastball, a sinker and a curve. He’ll throw any pitch at any time, no matter the count. Hitters have to guess right against him and they usually don’t. Lopez has a BB/K split of 22/94 in 91 frames. His groundball rate has been good all year but it’s even better lately with a 54% rate over his last five starts. Scan through all starters at this level and you would be hard-pressed to find one that has a better xERA than Lopez’s 2.61. That makes us buyers.

Drew Smyly (LHP - ATL) makes his 14th start of the year and comes in with a well-deserved 4.79/4.99 ERA/xERA split. However, Smyly is not trending the right way. He has a first-pitch strike rate of 36% and an xERA of 5.06 over his five starts. Furthermore, things get much worse for Smyly in his own barn where he sports a 5,76/6.11 ERA/xERA split over 25 home innings. Over that span, dude has been tagged for eight jacks (!) in 25 home frames. Drew Smyly has made five home starts and eight away starts and in said home starts, he has zero quality appearances. That makes us sellers.


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Our Pick

Miami -1 +165 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.30)

Baltimore -1 +170 over DETROIT
Cincinnati -1 +230 over N.Y. METS
Colorado -1 +200 over SAN DIEGO