Miami @ PHILADELPHIA
Miami -1 +185 over PHILADELPHIA

Pinnacle -1½ +185 BET365 -1½ +160 SportsInteraction N/A BetOnlin-1½ +175 Bookmaker N/A

Posted at 11:15 PM EST. 

Miami -1½ +185 over PHILADELPHIA

6:05 PM EST. During his 2020 season, Zach Eflin (RHP - PHI) won four games and posted 70 strikeouts, a 3.97 ERA, and a 1.27 WHIP in 59 innings. His 2021 results have been similar, as he has two wins, 87 strikeouts, a 4.20 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 90 innings. While a K% drop was expected, Eflin has also lost some velocity on his fastball. Even with a slider that can miss bats, those that back him should expect an average K% at best in his starts. With a strong control of the zone, his Ball% and BB% should continue to keep his WHIP in check, but he also allows a lot of hard contact. Eflin is a decent 3rd man in the rotation type.

Pablo Lopez (RHP - MIA) isn’t good, he’s great. At the age of 25, his pitching IQ is off the charts. This pitch-mix tinkerer has found a winning formula with a wicked change up (20% swing & miss rate) a cut fastball, a sinker and a curve. He’ll throw any pitch at any time, no matter the count. Hitters have to guess right against him and they usually don’t. Lopez has a BB/K split of 22/94 in 91 frames. His groundball rate has been good all year but it’s even better lately with a 54% rate over his last five starts. Scan through all starters at this level and you would be hard-pressed to find one that has a better xERA than Lopez’s 2.61.

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Our Pick

Miami -1 +185 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.70)

Baltimore -1 +170 over DETROIT
Cincinnati -1 +230 over N.Y. METS
Colorado -1 +200 over SAN DIEGO