Chicago @ MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE -1½ +134 over Chicago

Pinnacle -1½ +134 BET365 -1½ +130 SportsInteraction -1½ +128 BetOnline -1½ +131 Bookmaker -1½ +130

Posted at 11:15 AM EST. 

MILWAUKEE -1½ +134 over Chicago

2:10 PM EST. Jake Arrieta (RHP - CHC) has exhibited shaky form of late and has allowed four earned runs or more in four of his last five starts while barely averaging five innings per start. The last time Arrieta answered the bell to start the 6th inning was way back on May 14th or nine starts ago. He faces a Milwaukee club which has picked up the pace offensively in recent weeks (.742 OPS last two weeks).

You may have never heard of Aaron Ashby (LHP - Milwaukee) before but remember this word -- movement. That best describes everything in Ashby’s repertoire. That movement creates whiffs and lots of groundballs. The fastball he uses sits 92-95 mph with a heavy sink and some glove-side cut to it. This is a nasty offering that garners whiffs, chopped foul balls and groundballs. He did show a traditional four-seamer that hit 94-95 and had some late life up in the zone. Ashby’s 83-86 mph changeup featured late, hard tumble that mirrors his sinking fastball. It, too, produces whiffs and shows solid command. His best breaking ball is a slider (81-83) that has plus tilt, 2/8, and sharp, late horizontal movement. Hitters usually swing over the top of it or make weak contact on top of the baseball. Certainly, a plus pitch. His final offering is a curveball that sits 75-77 with similar tilt to the slider but without the late horizontal movement. This is more of a show pitch. Ashby’s delivery can be extremely deceptive, as his release is funky and hidden and he will vary the swing of his front leg a lot. He also showed lots of athleticism on choppers near the mound. We understand the risks getting behind first-time starters but this wager is more of a fade against Arrieta. Nonetheless, there is a lot to like in Ashby’s profile and nothing to like in Arrieta’s.

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Our Pick

MILWAUKEE -1½ +134 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.68)

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