Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 3:55 PM EST.
Miami -106 over PHILADELPHIA
7:05 PM EST. Before someone accuses us of zigzagging after backing the Phillies yesterday in Cincinnati, please know that this play has little to do with the Cracked Liberty Bells. They are merely in the path of an undervalued and underperforming Miami side that has won just two of its last seven games. The Marlins will send second-year man Trevor Rogers (LHP - MIA) to the bump and if you read this space, you know how good this kid is. A former 13th overall pick in 2017, Rogers is a lefty that looms large with his 6'5" frame. A loser last time out, Rogers was the victim of a lack of run support, as the Fish could only muster a single score. The 3-1 final did nothing to hurt the big bugger's stock in our eyes. He still flamed six Blue Jays over five innings. On the season, Roger's sports an elite 15.3% swing and miss rate. While you might suspect his 2.08 ERA is a little generous, Roger’s xERA is still a very tidy 2.96. Not too shabby. Meanwhile, dude is priced like he's an end of the rotation plug, not an elite starting pitcher. Of which the latter, he most certainly is.
As we said, these Phillies could have been the Mets, Brewers, Reds or just about anyone else in cleats. However, we would like to point out that the Fish were the chalk when this line opened and now this game is basically a coin flip, depending on where you shop. That we can attack a stiff like Vince Velasquez (RHP - PHI) is just the cherry on top, really, as there is no way he should be getting this much respect from the market. To be honest, we don't get it. What is there to like here today about the Phils? Their bullpen was run through the meat grinder last night and who knows what will be left of those arms today. As for Vinny V? Dude is everything he appears to be. His xERA of 4.54 is just .20 points shy of his surface number. His 35.8% groundball rate is what it is and always has been. Not impressive. The journeyman's strikeout rate is down, his walks are up and his team is going bad. If the efficient market cashes their ticket on this one, good on them, but the Marlins hold all the value here.
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Miami -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)