Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 3:15 PM EST.
Philadelphia +137 over CINCINNATI
6:40 PM EST. Wade Miley (LHP - CIN) looks on paper to be one of the more reliable starters this season. Dude has gone at least seven innings in three straight starts. In a world where starters rarely make it past the fifth inning, the market might look at a guy like Miley as a way to potentially limit the impact of an often unreliable bullpen. However, there is no guarantee that Miley makes it that far into the game and the goods under the hood support that. Most concerning is Miley's swing and miss rate which is a puny 9.7%. An xERA that is higher than his surface number could also be a sign that Miley has been living a charmed life. Moreover, Great American Ballpark is a hitter friendly spot, which is not ideal for Miley’s profile.
The injury chasers will be out today with Bryce Harper dinged up (when isn't that dude nursing an ailment) after he took a pitch to the calf on Saturday. Harper sat yesterday in the Phillies 4-2 win over the Mets and for the moment, he is listed as day-to-day. If Harper is on the bench, he'll watch Spencer Howard (RHP - PHI) take his turn to pitch. If Howard is still available in your fantasy leagues, consider taking a flyer on him, as you could do a lot worse than the former second round pick. While Howard has struggled with his command this season, dude has great stuff. At 6'3", Howard is imposing, and when he brings it, he gives opposing hitters fits. An 0-2 record and 5.59 ERA will not jump off the page, but his xERA is a much tidier 3.72. He's punched out 26 batters in 19.1 innings pitched and holds an increasing 11.8% swinging strike rate. Earlier this year at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, Howard posted a 14.1% swing and miss rate with the IronPigs so it's not like he's come close to peaking. When dude puts it all together, he's going to be a front of the rotation candidate. Howard is the Phillies’ highest-rated prospect, but he has been slow to get started. Injuries and a lost 2019 minor league season have limited him to just one full season as a professional starting pitcher. When Howard’s fastball is at its best, it can reach 97 MPH. Even when it dips to 94, his plus change will be there to mop up. He's not afraid to dust lefty's back with a high heater, which sets up his slider, a pitch that has significant movement to his right side. While not used as much as his top three pitches, Howard's curveball is also a solid out-pitch. One has to wonder how Spencer has flown under the radar when prospects of his calibre rarely do. We doubt Casey Mize, Tarik Scubal or Matt Manning are still on your waiver wire. Hell, someone probably has Sixto Sánchez or MacKenzie Gore stashed on their bench just waiting for them to finally debut. Meanwhile, elite strikeout potential is just sitting there, ripe for the taking. Snap Howard up now and thank us later. He's just getting warmed up.
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Philadelphia +137 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.74)