Atlanta +131 over CINCINNATI

Pinnacle +131 BET365 +125 SportsInteraction +130 BetOnline +130 Bookmaker +128

Posted at 12:00 PM EST

Atlanta +131 over CINCINNATI

1:10 Tyler Mahle is having a very good year, which is why the Reds are so heavily favored today. His under the hood numbers support his work too. Mahle ditched his curveball for a new slider (18.6% swing and miss rate) to drive his K% spike. Dude has an elite 98 K’s in 78 frames. However, Atlanta has always hit him well. Current Braves have a combined .331 BA against Mahle with a .405 OBP. Furthermore, Mahle’s 37%/28%/35% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is a bit troublesome, which has led to more than a few disasters at this smaller venue. 

Kyle Muller (LHP - ATL) was a projection bet when the Braves took him in the second round in 2016 out of Dallas Jesuit College Prep. Now beyond imposing at 6'7" and 250 pounds and armed with two plus pitches and a four-pitch mix, that bet is looking to have been a good one. The fastball has just kept on getting faster and now sits 96. It has excellent spin, plays well up in the zone, and gets plus plus grades from multiple evaluators. The slider was added during the downtime and now projects as a plus offering with hard, nasty bite. Muller's curveball is still an above-average pitch and his changeup has come along nicely too. Despite his stuff taking off, the command and control remains raw, and when he misses, it can be of the Uecker sardonic "juuuust a bit outside" variety. The K% is solid at 28.9%, but his 13.4% BB% is rough. That fringe wildness holds back the starting profile despite the swing-and-miss stuff. When he’s hitting the strike zone, Muller is lights out. In his two appearances thus far, he has a 16% swing and miss rate, a 53% groundball rate and a 7% line-drive rate. Watch closely and bet on him when the Braves are taking back a tag.


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Our Pick

Atlanta +131 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.62)

Baltimore -1 +170 over DETROIT
Cincinnati -1 +230 over N.Y. METS
Colorado -1 +200 over SAN DIEGO
Bet at 5dimes