SAN FRANCISCO -1 +148 over Oakland

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Posted at 12:00 PM EST

SAN FRANCISCO -1½ +148 over Oakland

Sam Long (LHP - SF) moves the needle with a home start versus Oakland's below-average OPS vs. LHP. In his June 20 outing vs. Philadelphia, Long struck out six and allowed two earned runs in six innings. In 15 innings overall, he has struck out 16 batters while only issuing three walks. The Athletics have an average K% against southpaws.

Drafted by the Rays in the 18th round in 2016, Tampa had Long throw sidearm but still released him at the end of 2018 spring training and instead of signing on elsewhere, he left baseball to pursue a career as an EMT. Unable to let the game go, he worked hard that off-season to get back into game shape, and was signed by the White Sox based solely off of a 22-second video posted on Twitter. Long went out and had a solid 2019 for Single-A Kannapolis, with a 28.7% K% and 7.2% BB% over 97.0 IP. Long now operates with five pitches, primarily working with a 92 to 95 mph four-seam fastball and a mid-to-high 80s curveball. Both pitches can be above-average. Long's changeup is more average but there's good velocity separation off the fastball. He's also been working on a slider and a sinker, but these are still lesser-used offerings, though he's using the slider as a put-away offering on occasion. Long impressed Giants' staff and players in spring training and has been hot to start 2021. Across Double-A and Triple-A (22.2 IP), he's got a 44% K%, 6% BB%, and a 17.6% swing and miss rate. Because he's come on so strongly seemingly out of nowhere, there haven't been a ton of eyes on Long, but that is the best time to target an under-the-radar starter. This kid can pitch!

Cole Irvin (LHP - OAK) moves the needle the wrong way against San Francisco's Top 10 OPS vs. LHP. His 16% K% is weak (60 K’s in 86 innings) and will not lead to many strikeouts. His 5.23 xERA and 4.93 career ERA carry more risk. Add in three disasters in his last five games started and the picture becomes even clearer of just how erratic and hittable this kid is.


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Our Pick

SAN FRANCISCO -1 +148 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.96)

Baltimore -1 +170 over DETROIT
Cincinnati -1 +230 over N.Y. METS
Colorado -1 +200 over SAN DIEGO