Pittsburgh @ ST. LOUIS
Pittsburgh +134 over ST. LOUIS

Pinnacle +134 BET365 +130 SportsInteraction +132 BetOnline +137 Bookmaker +136

Posted at 12:00 PM EST

Pittsburgh +134 over ST. LOUIS

2:15 PM EST. Other than a brief encounter with COVID-19 (apparently a member of Wainwright’s family tested positive for COVID, but Wainwright did not) Adam Wainwright (RHP - St. L) has stayed healthy and has seemingly turned back the clock with 14 starts to go along with a rock solid 3.74 ERA. How does he do it? Well, to begin, a very fortunate 28% hit rate and an exquisite BB% is making him an early ERA/WHIP stud. These will all regress (see xERA) because there’s nothing in his skill set that says the results should be as good as they are. Dude has a pedestrian 10% swing and miss rate and a just as pedestrian 57% first-pitch strike rate. His swinging strike rate is 8.3% over his last five starts. Wainwright is 39-years old and is pitching like he’s 29. His long track record of pitchability says not to write him off, but today he’s priced way too high to recommend. Furthermore the team he plays for couldn’t hit a cow’s ass with a shovel these days.   

Jonathan Brubaker (RHP - PIT) is elite but he’s under the radar elite because he plays for the Pirates. Not only is Brubaker elite, he’s consistently elite with just a couple of poor outings this entire season. The numbers are just amazing. Brubaker has walked 15 and struck out 72 in 72 frames for an outstanding BB/K ratio. He can locate as well as any starter in the game. He’s constantly pitching from ahead in the count and is becoming more dominating with each passing start. Brubaker will now face a St. Louis nine that owns a mere .586 OPS the last two weeks, which is dead last in the majors. The Cardinals bullpen ranks near the bottom and now we get the superior starter, the superior pen and the team in much better form at a price. Yeah, we’ll bite.

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Our Pick

Pittsburgh +134 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.68)

Baltimore -1 +170 over DETROIT
Cincinnati -1 +230 over N.Y. METS
Colorado -1 +200 over SAN DIEGO