Kansas City @ TEXAS
Kansas City +139 over TEXAS

Pinnacle +139 BET365 +130 SportsInteraction +132 BetOnline +140 Bookmaker +138

Posted at 12:00 PM EST

Kansas City +139 over TEXAS

4:05 PM EST. After 26 appearances and just one short start, Kyle Zimmer (RHP - KC) will get his second start of the year. Chances are that he will not go more than three innings but this wager has nothing to do with getting behind Zimmer although he’s been very good in relief. Dude has a 0% line-drive rate over his last 12 innings! All in all, his K% looks legit, his BB% stands to improve, and the groundballs (54%) help keep big innings at bay.

As expected when he went on the IL, Kyle Gibson's (RHP - TEX) stay was short. Apart from a disastrous Opening Day start vs. KC, Gibson has been magnificent for Texas in 2021, posting a 2.17 ERA heading into this start. That said, Gibson has benefitted from some fortunate hit-rate luck, with just a 24% rate suppressing his ERA; his xERA is 4.07, statistically similar to his recent-year numbers. Gibson also has a lucky 84.9% strand rate. Don't expect Gibson to continue putting up the numbers he's posted to date. Dude has 64 K’s in 83 innings. That’s weak and so is his 5% swing and miss rate over hias last five starts. 

The Astronauts have struck out the fewest times in the majors. They also have the best record. Kansas City has struck out the second fewest times. There is a big correlation between winning teams and not striking out so a correction to Kansas City's misleading record is forthcoming. Texas ranks 20th in that same category. Point is, K.C. puts the ball in play far more than Texas and that means their chances of winning are better too.


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Our Pick

Kansas City +139 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.78)

Baltimore -1 +170 over DETROIT
Cincinnati -1 +230 over N.Y. METS
Colorado -1 +200 over SAN DIEGO