St. Louis @ DETROIT
DETROIT +106 over St. Louis

Pinnacle +106 BET365 +100 SportsInteraction +100 BetOnline +107 Bookmaker +103

Posted at 2:30 PM EST. 

DETROIT +106 over St. Louis

7:10 PM EST. Johan Oviedo makes his 8th start of the year and is averaging under five innings per start. Dude has walked 18 and struck out 29 in 35 innings over his eight starts and one relief appearance. His BB/K ratios are weak. Last year, this Cuban rookie made five unremarkable starts. xERA, xWHIP say he more or less got what he deserved. Oviedo is still learning how to control his four-pitch mix and generate more swings and misses. Dude has plenty of work to do before we think of him first when we hear the name Johan. 

St. Louis is favored here because why? Actually, the only reason the Cardinals are favored is because they are 36-36 while the Tigers are 30-42. The Cardinals are probably the worst value bet on today’s board, thus making the Tigers a truly underpriced choice.

Does anyone even know how good Tarik Skubal (RHP - DET) is or is going to be? This unheralded collegian raced through the minors and is now more than a highly-regarded prospect with both repertoire and stuff. Skubal has a pedestrian 4.36 ERA after 14 appearances (12 starts) but he’s trending the right way across the board. He has 41 K’s in his last 28 innings. His xERA over his last five starts is a Jacob deGrom-like 2.97. His near unhittable and filthy stuff is under the radar because he plays for the Tigers and because his rough start sticks out more than his most recent outings. When we first wrote about Skubal, we said, “His domination could come in a hurry”. Well, it’s here and although there still figures to be some bumps in the road, this kid is the real deal. That he’s a dog to the Cardinals and Johan Oviedo is value at its absolute best. 

Before we go, it’s worth noting that the Cardinals bullpen leads the league in walks issued. The same bullpen is responsible for the worst xERA among all 30 teams. Once again we ask, “The Cardinals are favored here because why”?

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Our Pick

DETROIT +106 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.12)

Baltimore -1 +170 over DETROIT
Cincinnati -1 +230 over N.Y. METS
Colorado -1 +200 over SAN DIEGO