Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 2:30 PM EST.
Boston +108 over TAMPA BAY
7:10 PM EST. Tampa Bay is a great team. Their sum is greater than their parts but what they do is play the game the way it’s supposed to be played. Unlike 29 other teams, the Rays move guys over after a leadoff double. They get guys home from third with less than two outs. They can bunt, they can hit and run and they can also hit the cutoff man when it is called for. Another thing they can do, unlike 28 other teams, is bring in relievers that throw strikes and that work from being ahead in the count. Tampa wins more games than just about any other team, not because they have the best talent but because they are fundamentally superior to any team in the majors. Of course the Rays can win here but if we’re playing value, then the Red Sox must be played.
The Rays are using a bullpen start here, meaning the starter will go one or two innings and so will everyone that follows. Boston will turn to Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP - BOS), one of the most hard luck starters in the game. Rodriguez has an elite BB/K rate of 18/78 in 67 frames. That’s outstanding. However, an insanely unlucky 59% strand rate has sabotaged his ERA to 6.21. We now get Rodriguez and the Red Sox at a discount because of his inflated and misleading ERA. Truth be told, Rodriguez has an xERA of 3.55 (2.85 in his last three starts) and there isn’t a pitcher in the game more due for a correction to the good than Boston’s great lefty, Eduardo Rodriguez.
Now for the meat. The Wonder Kid, Wander Franco makes his much anticipated season debut tonight and he doesn’t play for the Red Sox. If he did, Boston would be favored, as this kid is supposed to be the second coming of Ken Griffey Jr or Willy Mays or Tony Gwynn or Vlad Jr or Bo Jackson or, well….. you get the point. America is pining for a hero and this kid is the latest flavor of the month so naturally all eyes will be on him and the Rays in this game. We trust you all know where we’re going with this. The media hype surrounding Wander is off the charts and that means the Rays are getting bet heavily, thus creating this great value on the underdog.
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Boston +113 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.26)