Cincinnati @ MILWAUKEE
Cincinnati -1 +148 over MILWAUKEE

Pinnacle -1½ +148 BET365 -1½ +120 SportsInteraction N/A BetOnlin-1½ +140 Bookmaker N/A

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. 

Cincinnati -1½ +148 over MILWAUKEE

8:10 PM EST. Luis Castillo (RHP - CIN) is testing our patience start after start after start but we’re not about to abort now. He has a 6.47 ERA and 1.58 WHIP after 13 starts and we have to wonder what is going on. Still, Castillo's command building blocks have been excellent (13.8% swing & miss rate last three starts with a 31% ball%). That figures to drive improvement in his skills and stats, especially once his 35% hit-rate, 60% strand rate and 17% hr/f regress.

Luis Castillo should be a 2-1 favorite over Brett Anderson (LHP - MIL) on Castillo’s worst day and Anderson’s best day. Anderson has walked 14 batters while striking out a mere 21 in 40 innings for the worst strikeout rate among qualified starters in the league. Furthermore, Anderson has a 4.7% swing and miss rate, which is also the worst in the league among qualified starters. Dude doesn’t even throw strikes and he’s been behind in the count on 50% of the batters he’s faced this season. There is truly nothing but pure luck in his awful profile and in case you were wondering, Anderson’s 8.89 xERA is also the worst we have ever seen among qualified starters in all the years we have been doing this.

At the time of this writing, Cinci is a -106 to -115 fav depending on where you shop. No chance of that price staying this low so we’re going to recommend a run-line play. If you can get it at its current price of -110 or less, that is also tremendous value.

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Our Pick

Cincinnati -1 +148 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.96)

Baltimore -1 +170 over DETROIT
Cincinnati -1 +230 over N.Y. METS
Colorado -1 +200 over SAN DIEGO
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