L.A. Angels @ OAKLAND
L.A. Angels/OAKLAND u8 +100

Pinnacle u8 +100 BET365 u8½ -110 SportsInteraction u8½ -110 BetOnlinu8½ -110 Bookmaker u8½ -110

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. 

L.A. Angels/OAKLAND under 8 +100

9:40 PM EST. Frankie Montas (RHP - OAK) started the year with some ugly early stats (5.50 ERA, 1.44 WHIP in 36 innings) but it was all bad luck fueled by unlucky hit and strand rates. His command building blocks of a 12.5% swing & miss rate, 65% first-pitch strike rate and 32% ball% suggested things would improve and they have. Montas has been dealing it all year but he still doesn’t have the surface stats to support that fact. That works in our favor because the total here is too high for two outstanding starters in a pitchers park. Montas has an 18/73 BB/K split in 70 frames. His xERA over his last six starts is an outstanding 3.22.

On May 18 only 12 starters (min. 30 IP) had a 26% K-BB%. 11 of them had a sub-3.20 ERA, and one didn’t…..Andrew Heaney (LHP - LAA). Heaney had great underlying skills in April (35% K%, 9% BB%, 26% K-BB%), as well as a strong swing & miss rate (14.8%) and first-pitch strike rate (73%). His rough surface stats were a result of bad luck. Heaney finished 16th among all starters in the month of April in xERA despite troubling surface numbers.

From a skills perspective, the 3.51 xERA that Heaney currently owns would both be the best results he’s ever had in his career but his surface ERA is covering it up. He's averaged a 3.75 xERA since 2018, and ranks in the Top 30 among starters in K%, BB%, and K-BB% during that time. There continues to be a large amount of upside in Heaney's profile but he’s mostly considered in this market to be a reliable #3 instead of the ace that he is. Combined with Montas, this is a good ol’ fashioned pitchers duel that we’ll take a stab at.

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Our Pick

L.A. Angels/OAKLAND u8 +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)

Baltimore -1 +170 over DETROIT
Cincinnati -1 +230 over N.Y. METS
Colorado -1 +200 over SAN DIEGO