Pinnacle +146 BET365 +140 SportsInteraction +138 BetOnline +145 Bookmaker +140

Posted at 11:30 AM EST. 

Colorado +146 over CINCINNATI

1:10 PM EST. Cincinnati has swatted away the Rockies in the first two games of this series while barely breaking a sweat in the process but today likely isn’t going to be as easy. Antonio Senzatela (RHP - COL) has an unsightly 4.62 ERA but pay no attention to any pitcher’s ERA when he pitches half of his games at Coors. Check out his road ERA you say? We did and his road ERA is 6.75 but that, too, is misleading, as he’s only started four road games and one came at the Dodgers back in early April where Senzatela was knocked out after giving up five runs in 2.2 innings. That sabotaged his road ERA.

Truth be told, Antonio Senzatela has an elite groundball rate (54%) that figures to play well at this park. Since returning from injury on May 12, His xERA is a very impressive 3.54. In his last start, dude struck out eight batters in six frames but almost every groundball found a hole. Here’s a starter with an unlucky 67% strand rate and a highly unlucky .324 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP).

Tony Santillan (RHP - CIN) will make his big league debut here and far more often than not, that’s a complete roll of the dice. Santillan was a second-round pick in 2015 and has experienced many ups and downs in his career since that time. He’s had minor injuries and suffered through delivery and control issues. After a hot beginning to 2021 encompassing six starts at Triple-A (2.51 ERA, 12.5 K/9), he could be counted on to provide more than a spot start. Santillan has a big pitcher’s frame at 6’3”, 240 pounds and has an above average fastball to match. Featuring heavy, late life, the fastball sits between 92-97 mph with the potential for more. His slider, his out-pitch, flashes plus and has been much more consistent in 2021. Santillan still requires polish to his fringe-average change-up, which he’ll need to remain a starter. It often can be too firm and lack separation from his fastball. Making his big-league debut as a two-pitch pitcher is a giant risk and despite the good numbers at Louisville in a small sample this year, he still was tagged for five jacks in 32 frames by minor-league hitters. Dude does not look major-league ready but the Reds need bodies because Sonny Gray landed on the DL. More importantly, a first time starter without pedigree is a massive risk at prices like this.

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