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Posted at 12:45 PM EST. 

CINCINNATI -1½ +100 over Colorado

7:10 PM EST. Tyler Mahle (RHP - CIN) ditched his curveball for a new slider (18.6% swing & miss rate) to drive a K% spike and it’s working. Dude has 72 K’s in 62 frames while walking just 20. Mahle is nailing it and while ratios should rise as luck factors regress, a likely fly-ball correction should offset some of that damage. Regardless, the Rockies come in as very beatable.

Kyle Freeland (LHP - COL) is one of the most hittable pitchers in the game. Last year he had a bit of a bounceback from a disastrous 2019 that looked a lot like 2017, the last time he had normal luck. Freeland’s xBB%, groundball rates and velocity were almost uncannily consistent with previous benchmarks, yet the guardrail-to-guardrail surface stats demonstrate the inherent risk of allowing tons of balls in play, which is amplified by Coors and also amplified at other specific parks including this one. Freeland has issued eight walks while striking out 7 batters this year to go along with a very weak 7% swing and miss rate. Balls will be in play so let’s find out where they are going to land.

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