Baltimore @ TAMPA BAY
Baltimore +155 over TAMPA BAY

Pinnacle +156 BET365 +155Spor tsInteraction +155 BetOnlin+155 Bookmaker +155

Posted at 12:45 PM EST. 

Baltimore +155 over TAMPA BAY

7:10 PM EST. This might be the biggest overlay on the board because market and media perception is that the Orioles are one of the league’s dregs. We’re not looking to change that sentiment, instead, we’re hoping it remains that way because we’ll keep getting these great prices on the O’s.

Ryan Yarbrough (LHP - TAM) is coming off of a pair of strong starts including a complete game win over the Yankees his last time out, which is just beautiful because his stock is so much higher after that market-aware performance. Yarborough is about as pedestrian a starter as they come. Dude has 53 K’s in 66 innings and uses his changeup and 86 MPH fastball almost an equal amount of times. He’s been relegated to the pen before and will probably be relegated again at some point. His 2020 win total is proof positive that he's still making payments to the baseball gods for the Great Wins Loan of 2018. It’s also worth noting that the Orioles own the league’s highest ranking (#1) against southpaws.

Keegan Akin (LHP - BAL) is also a lefty. The Rays’ bats rank 24th out of 30 teams against southpaws (Baltimore ranks #1) so let's give an edge to the O’s. Ryan Yarbrough’s best skill is his ability to throw strikes. Keegan Akin has walked four batters this year in 20 innings with 18 K’s so his BB% and K% is superior to Yarbrough’s. Akin does not have the experience of Yarbrough but ask 29 other managers which pitcher they would prefer to have on their staff and 28 would say Akin while Tony LaRussa would be too drunk to answer. In any event, Akin has a 0.93 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over two starts since joining the Baltimore rotation.

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Our Pick

Baltimore +155 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.10)

Baltimore -1 +170 over DETROIT
Cincinnati -1 +230 over N.Y. METS
Colorado -1 +200 over SAN DIEGO