Pinnacle +101 BET365 -105 SportsInteraction -106  BetOnline +100 Bookmaker -105

Posted at 11:30 AM EST. 

CINCINNATI +101 over Milwaukee

12:35 PM EST. Luis Castillo (RHP - CIN) has been an enigma this season, with half of his outings bordering on disasters, but with enough positive outcomes to suggest that there might be hope. His most recent game was one of those, as he held the Cardinals to one earned run in 6 IP with a 5/1 K/BB. He now faces the Brewers in Cincinnati. This is a rematch of a May 23 game when he allowed five earned runs in five frames with a 5/4 K/BB.

Freddy Peralta (RHP - MIL) is also good with an incredible 92 K’s in 64 innings, which in years gone by would have been considered unhittable. Not this year. Players are striking out more than ever. Furthermore, Peralta’s 31%/22%/46% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is one that spells danger in a park like Great American. Finally, if we factor in the two teams and current form, one has to give a massive edge to the Reds. You see, the Brewers have struggled against RHP, with only a .654 OPS, 14th in the NL, and they have only a .676 OPS on the road. Over the past three weeks, Cincinnati ranks top-5 in hits, OBP and Team Batting average while the Crew ranks bottom six in all of the above. This is the year when starting pitchers have less impact on outcomes than ever before because they rarely go past six innings and even that’s a stretch. Wrong side favored. 

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