Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:00 PM EST.
Toronto +139 over CHICAGO
8:10 PM EST. Alek Manoah (RHP - TOR) is in line for start No. 3 after a beauty debut against the Yankees and then a rough outing against the Marlins. The White Sox don’t clobber right-handed pitching, but three walks and as many homers allowed in his last start did Manoah in.
Manoah was a "just missed" guy from the top-100 prospects in many publications this past spring and he's been out there grinding ever since like he well deserved to be on it. A towering 6'6" and 250 pounds, Manoah is an imposing figure on the mound, with the stuff to back it up. He's been a divisive prospect due to his limited athleticism and lagging changeup through his draft and into professional ball, as many evaluators believed he would eventually be bullpen bound. There, it is argued, his plus mid-90s fastball with late sink and plus slider would play up in a highly leveraged role, while his limited athleticism wouldn't end in repeated breakdowns or serious control issues. Manoah, however, used 2020 to get in excellent shape, even opening a gym with his brother in Miami. At the alternative site, the Jays had the Florida native focus on changeup development and the results were promising, as he impressed scouts in attendance. Manoah kept that fire going into the start of the season for Triple-A Buffalo, with 27 K, 3 BB, 7 H, 1 ER and a 17.5% swing and miss rate over 18 IP. Dude is very likely going to get better every week so keep close tabs on him.
The good folks over at Baseball Savant allow us to delve into spin rates among other under the radar metrics but our attention right now is on pitchers that have seemingly found a new secret sauce, like Martin Perez prior to last night’s start for instance. Lance Lynn (RHP - CHW) is another starter whose spin rate this year is much higher than his career norms and therefore his results are better too. With the crackdown on illegal substances in play, we’ll continue to attack pitchers that aren’t going to get away with it anymore and Lance Lynn appears on the list of starters with higher spin rates than ever before. Lance Lynn is serviceable but a 1.23 ERA after 10 starts is something he’s never accomplished before. At the age of 34 and with years of mediocrity behind him, take away the substance and Lance Lynn is now a premium target to regress in a big way.
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Toronto +139 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.78)