Arizona +170 over MILWAUKEE

Pinnacle +170 BET365 +170 SportsInteraction +170 BetOnlin+170 Bookmaker +170

Posted at 12:30 PM EST. 

Arizona +170 over MILWAUKEE

8:10 PM EST. In the opener of this series last night, the Brewers won 7-4 in the day’s most misleading score. Arizona had 13 hits, drew four walks and one batter was hit so 14 of 18 base-runners were left stranded. Milwaukee was being outhit 12-4 at one point but had a 6-2 lead. The Crew ended up with seven hits and were never trailing but they are once again overpriced here.

Matt Peacock (RHP - ARI) is a groundball pitcher (58% grounders) that throws strikes (just three walks issued in 28 innings) and that’s a profile worth getting behind against a team that is constantly bleeding units in the favorite role. Very rarely are the Crew worthy of being priced in this range and this one is no exception.

There is some growth in Freddy Peralta’s profile but there’s also reasons for concern. His ERA is suppressed vs. xERA, thanks to both a low hit rate and a fortunate rate of fly balls leaving the yard (51% fly-ball rate).

Walks remain high, and Ball% is problematic, suggesting this will not improve any time soon. The increased fly-ball rate is also worrisome, and he hasn't suffered it too much yet thanks to the aforementioned HR/F rate. Walks-plus-potential homers add up to something bad happening. Nice overlay here.


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Our Pick

Arizona +170 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.40)