Cincinnati @ ST. LOUIS
Cincinnati +126 over ST. LOUIS

Pinnacle +126 BET365 +115 SportsInteraction +121 BetOnlin+120 Bookmaker +115

Posted at 12:30 PM EST. 

Cincinnati +126 over ST. LOUIS

8:15 PM EST. 12-year KBO veteran Kwang Hyun Kim (LHP - ST. L) hung a gaudy ERA in first taste of MLB action last season and well into this year but his xERA tells a very different story. Dude arrived with a hyped slider, but it garnered just a 12% swing and miss rate and now his overall swing & miss rate is 8.6%. Low velocity, subpar swinging strikes, and K% across all offerings put a firm cap on his upside. Expect a hard sophomore slump toward his xERA of 5.32. This starter is far more lucky than he is good.

Luis Castillo (RHP - CIN) is suffering from some extreme bad fortune that figures to change soon. Here’s a starter that has 48 K’s in 52 innings to go along with a groundball rate of 51% (63% last start) and yet he’s sporting a surface ERA of 7.22. Why? Have a look at Catillo’s Batting Average on Ball in Play (BABIP) and then look at his strand % and then combine the two. It’s fascinating. Luis Catillo’s BABIP is .371. That is the highest mark on the board today and is among the highest in the league. To put that into perspective, here are some of today’s other starters with their BABIP in parenthesis...Jake Arietta (.278), Zach Greinke (.278), Max Scherzer (.234), Kyle Gibson (.234), Spencer Turnbull (.264), Josh Fleming (.227), Zach Wheeler (.277) and the list goes on and on.

It gets even unluckier for Castillo with a strand rate of 54% meaning almost half of the baserunners he’s allowed have come around to score. To put that into perspective, here are some of today’s other starters with their strand rate in parenthesis: Frankie Montas (74.3%), Kyle Gibson (79..9%), Ian Anderson (81.2%), Jonathan Gray (65.6%), Freddy Peralta (85.2%) and that list also goes on and on. Luis Castillo may not be as good as he was in past seasons but he’s still a very good pitcher that any team would love to have. His bad luck is unsustainable.

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Our Pick

Cincinnati +126 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.52)

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