Chicago @ SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO -1 +156 over Chicago

Pinnacle -½ +156 BET365 -½ +155 SportsInteraction -½ +155 BetOnlin-½ +157 Bookmaker -½ +155

Posted at 2:50 PM EST. 

SAN FRAN -1½ +156 over Chicago

9:45 PM EST. Anthony DeSclafani (RHP - SF) threw two consecutive duds in his last two starts, both against the Dodgers, but in his previous two starts he threw two gems. He now faces the Cubs under the lights in San Francisco. DeSclafani has struggled at home with a 5.09 ERA, but he has been at his best in night games, where he has a 2.06 ERA (3.95 xERA) and a .174 OBA (Opponent Batting Average). This wager, however, is more about fading Chicago’s starter.

The Cubbies are 5-1 in Zach Davies’ (RHP - CHC) last six starts. How can that be? We faded Davies last time out against the Reds and with the score tied 2-2 in the sixth, the Cubs would put up a crooked number the rest of the way en route to a 10-2 victory. Zach Davies has allowed six earned runs over his last six starts and allowed three in one of those. Take away that start and he’s allowed three earned runs in his last five starts. How can that be?

Zachary Davies has walked 27 batters and struck out 29 in 50 innings this season. His last six starts might just represent the greatest stroke of luck over a six-game span in the history of this great game, Dude has put up Sandy Koufax-like surface stats (1-0 - 1.65 ERA) over his last six starts but he’s pitching worse than a washed up Barry Zito.

Davies managed to outperform his xBB% in 2019-20, but that hasn’t been the case in 2021. None of his pitches have garnered a swing & miss rate above 7%. His already puny fastball velocity (87.6 MPH) has lost another tick and has fallen to the 4th percentile in MLB, according to Statcast. Davies was never likely to repeat his 2020 breakout, but this horrendous crash to a 6.00 xERA and 1.75 WHIP has been extreme yet, here he is putting up a goose egg inning after inning after inning and it is simply the most unsustainable run that we have seen in a very, very long time. This dude must be faded.

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Our Pick

SAN FRANCISCO -1 +156 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.12)

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