San Diego @ CHICAGO
San Diego +115 over CHICAGO

Pinnacle +115 BET365 +115 SportsInteraction +115 BetOnlin+116 Bookmaker +115

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. 

San Diego +115 over CHICAGO

2:20 PM EST. Dinelson Lamet (RHP - SD) has only thrown 14 innings thus far in 2021 and it appears the Padres are bringing him along very slowly. Don't be surprised to see him go just three or four innings here regardless of how effective he is. That’s very likely going to leave the game in the hands of the Friars ‘pen. Lamet has been in two-and three-inning mode so far but last season he delivered on his "prime breakout candidate" tag with career-bests across the board. He leans heavily on his two-pitch mix, a four-seamer and a terrific slider (23% swing and miss rate), which accounts for 90% of his pitches. Dude can pitch so once or twice through the order suits us just fine.

The Padres opened as the favorite here but the efficient market did not agree, which has pushed this price to its current mark. It doesn’t agree because Chicago’s starter, Adbert Alzolay (RHP - CHC) is getting a ton of positive press and is no longer under the radar. We now get to sell high. Alzolay's rise to the majors has been slow and at times hampered by bad luck, like in 2019, when a 52% strand rate torpedoed his ERA in Triple-A. But his skills have steadily shown signs of growth, starting with a nice jump in K% in 2019, followed by 2021's career-best BB%, which has pushed his K-BB% into elite territory. A 6% BB% might be a bit over his true skill level, but he did own a 7% minor-league rate in 2018, and he has been throwing more first-pitch strikes (63%) in 2021. It bears watching, as walks have frequently been a key dividing line between success and struggling for him.

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Our Pick

San Diego +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)

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