Washington @ ATLANTA
ATLANTA -1 +121 over Washington

Pinnacle -1½ +121 BET365 -1½ +120 SportsInteraction -1½ +120 BetOnlin-1½ +120 Bookmaker -1½ +120

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. 

ATLANTA -1½ +121 over Washington

7:20 PM EST. The first thing we noticed about this game is that the posted total opened at a Coors-like 10 with no juice on the under. We’re pretty sure the total is not directed at Drew Smyly (LHP - ATL). Smyly’s ERA is 5.95 but oddsmakers are fully aware how misleading ERA’s are. Smyly is a great buy low target. He has shown a big bump in velocity (2.6 mph), which continues a K% positive trend. His swing & miss rate is heading into rarified territory and there is also an increased use of an effective curve. Smyly has a 16% swing and miss rate over his last four starts covering 23 innings but a ridiculously low 60% strand rate has sabotaged his surface numbers.

Back to the total of 10. It’s no coincidence that Jon Lester (LHP - WAS) is starting for the Nationals. The dude that signed this stiff for 5 million per wakes up very nervous every five days. For their 5 million so far, Lester has given the Nats 0 wins in six starts, 22 K’s in 29 frames and an xERA of 5.75. For $2000, the Nationals could have gotten the same production from a million different amateur ball players in the state. Nevertheless, another $166,000 will be awarded today to Lester for getting blown up. Dude has a 29% line-drive rate sandwiched between a 33%/38% groundball/fly-ball split. His fastball tops off at 88 MPH, thus he’s relying on smarts and balls being hit right at people to record outs. It may work out but Atlanta’s stadium is extremely unforgiving to pitchers that are constantly putting the ball in play.

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Our Pick

ATLANTA -1 +121 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.42)

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