Texas @ COLORADO
COLORADO -1 +170 over Texas

Pinnacle -1½ +170 BET365 -1½ +167 SportsInteraction - +160 BetOnlin-1½ +169 Bookmaker -5 +165

Posted at 3:00 PM EST. 

COLORADO -1½ +167 over Texas

8:40 PM EST. We’re sitting here trying to figure out why in the Wide, Wide World of Sports are the Rangers favored in Colorado against the Rockies ace? We suppose it’s because Dane Dunning (RHP - TEX) is showing nice skills that should play well most of the time (3.54 ERA) but we have mentioned numerous times how misleading ERA’s can be. Three of Dunning’s five road starts have resulted in a disaster, where overall, he is 0-3 with a 7.97 ERA and 1.92 WHIP. Pitching at Coors Field makes things even tougher, as the Rockies average 5.9 runs per game there with a .794 OPS.

Our starting pitcher records are not going to be the same as everywhere else. If a pitcher starts a game, he gets the win if his team wins and vice versa. For example, if pitcher X leaves the game in a 4-4 tie, and his club loses 5-4, we give him the loss, in spite of no "official" decision for him. The reason: if you bet him, you lost. With that said, Dane Dunning is 2-8 this year in his 10 starts and now dude is favored against German Marquez (RHP - COL) because why?

Márquez has a 4.47 ERA after 11 starts but his 4.05 xERA is elite because xERA does not take park factors into consideration. Marquez is a definite premium profit target that has tweaked his approach to try to avoid the Coors Field-fueled blowups that have plagued him in the past; he is inducing groundballs at an extremely high rate (55% GB%) and his 83.9 mph exit velocity is the third lowest among qualified SP. Now insert the Coors Field angle and you have your wager set.

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Our Pick

COLORADO -1 +170 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.40)

Bet at 5dimes
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