San Diego @ HOUSTON
San Diego +102 over HOUSTON

Pinnacle +102 BET365 -110 SportsInteraction  -105 BetOnlin +100 Bookmaker -110

Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

San Diego +102 over HOUSTON

2:10 PM EST. Last time out, Zach Greinke (RHP - HOU) was a pick-em against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. The Dodgers won that game, 9-2 after Greinke surrendered four runs in six frames while walking three. Of the 24 batters Grienke faced, he only induced five of them to hit the ball on the ground. We have been attacking Greinke all season long because he’s so overvalued and that is the case here once again so allow us to break it down once again.

Blake Snell (LHP - SD) is elite. Greinke is not. Blake Snell has 67 K’s in 44 innings. Greinke has 53 K’s in 66 frames. Snell’s swing & miss rate is 15% (19% last game). Greinke’s swing & miss rate is 8.5% (5.7% last game). Snell has an xERA of 3.64. Greinke has an xERA of 4.46 (5.05 last three games).

We could go on and on in comparing the two but we’re going to trust that you get the point. Snell’s surface ERA has been sabotaged by an incredibly unlucky 21.2% hr/f. That doesn’t even make sense considering his hard hit ball % is lower than most. In any event, this one does not need a long breakdown. The bottom line is that when Zack Greinke is favored over Blake Snell, Snell is the value play 100% of the time until further notice or when starts the game with four blisters on his pitching hand.

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Our Pick

San Diego +102 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)