Cincinnati @ CHICAGO
Cincinnati +104 over CHICAGO

Pinnacle +104 BET365 -105 SportsInteraction  +100 BetOnlin +102 Bookmaker -105

Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

Cincinnati +104 over CHICAGO

2:20 PM EST. Tyler Mahle (RHP, CIN) matches up against a Chicago offense that has a slightly above-average OPS vs. RHP. In a May 2 start vs. the Cubs in Cinci, Mahle struck out five and gave up six earned runs in five innings. His 5.85 ERA in his last five games looks bad on paper but doesn't provide us with the true story. Tyler Mahle has a 1.71 away ERA in 31.2 away innings, thus he’s not well suited to pitch in Cincinnati’s small park. That said, this wager is more about sticking with it (after losing with the Reds yesterday) and also attacking Chicago’s weak starter.

The Cubs have the brooms out today, but with Jake Arrieta (RHP - CHI) heading to bump, their chances of a sweep here are limited. You see. Arrieta's skills have been deteriorating and he's been a target of ours for quite some time. We see no reason to let up today. The Cubs actually opened as the pooch in this game but the efficient market has got a hold of that number and now the Cubbies are the chalk. Arrieta sports an xERA (5.22) that is higher than his surface number of 4.37. His groundball rate is down 13.2% from last year and sits at 38.6%. Add to that an increase in his hard hit balls and you've got a recipe for disaster. Dude also sports a horrible swinging strike rate of 8.5%. Arrieta draws a challenging matchup versus the Reds' second-best OPS in the majors vs. RHP. In an April 30 outing at Cincinnati, Arietta struck out two and gave up seven earned in 3.1 IP. His recent form warns of disasters, as he has a 5.69 xERA in his last five games started.

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Our Pick

Cincinnati +104 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)