Cincinnati @ CHICAGO
Cincinnati +104 over CHICAGO

Pinnacle +104 BET365 +100 SportsInteraction +100 BetOnlin+103 Bookmaker +100

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. 

Cincinnati +104 over CHICAGO

2:20 PM EST. Starting pitchers do not fully determine the betting line but nothing has more influence on it than the starting pitching matchup. With that being the case, Zach Davies (RHP - CHC) might seriously be the worst starting pitcher in the league. Meanwhile, Luis Castillo (RHP - CIN) is an ace so essentially what we have here is a complete dreg favored over an ace. We understand that Castillo is off to a horrible start but the skills are still intact and isn’t that the best time to buy? Davies favored over Castillo is almost criminal so let’s see if we can steal one here.

Now let’s take you back to the 1970’s. Many a terrible hurler took to the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays in the late 1970s, but perhaps none was worse than Jesse Jefferson (RHP - TOR), who went 22-56 with 266 walks and just 307 strikeouts in 666.1 innings pitched over four seasons. For his career, Jefferson went 39-81 with a 1.59 WHIP and just two more strikeouts than walks. We mention this because Zach Davies makes Jesse Jefferson look like Clayton Kershaw (LHP - LAD).

In 45 innings this year, Davies has a Jefferson-like 25 walks issued with 26 strikeouts. His swing & miss rate is 7.4%. His WHIP is 1.70 and his first-pitch strike rate is 48%. Davies has an xERA of 6.40 over 10 games started, which is deserving and is also the highest in the majors among all starters with six or more starts. In 1977, Jesse Jefferson was paid $40,000 for the year. In 2021, Zach Davies will earn $8,630,000 for being the worst starter in baseball and all we’re asking for is a lousy 2 units off him today.

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Our Pick

Cincinnati +104 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)

Bet at 5dimes