Miami @ BOSTON
Miami +137 over BOSTON

Pinnacle +137 BET365 +130 SportsInteraction +129 BetOnlin+130 Bookmaker +130

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. 

Miami +145 over BOSTON

4:10 PM EST. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP - BOS) is without question a serviceable starter that 29 other teams would like to have but he’s not what he’s being billed as here, which is a top-tier starting pitcher or a #1 or #2 man in the rotation. Eovaldi is a mid to back-end of the rotation starter. He’s 5-2 in 10 starts with a 4.39 ERA after walking just 13 batters and striking out 51 in 55 innings. Over his last five starts, Eovaldi posted a 4.74/4.32 ERA/xERA split. His batted ball profile of 47% grounders, 25% line-drives and 29% fly-balls is as average as the rest of his peripherals.

Trevor Rogers is very simply too good to be taking back prices like this. In his brief MLB career, Rogers has unintentionally been giving a master class in the impact of luck on pitchers. His skills have been quite comparable in 2020 and 2021, with the exception of shifts in ground balls and fly-balls, but his luck has swung from terrible in 2020 to terrific in 2021. A high strand rate and low HR/F have been behind his 1.89 ERA. His career skills suggest he'll eventually settle in around 3.25, which is still outstanding with some wiggle room based on where his groundball/fly-ball split ends up. Rogers has 70 K’s in 57 frames with a supported 15.6% swing & miss rate. In 10 starts, he is 6-2 while averaging over 20 batters faced per start. That’s an outstanding number by today’s standards. There's still time to buy Rogers at a discount. Last season, 13 of his earned runs allowed came in 7 IP across two starts and tanked his ERA and WHIP. His other five starts went 2.57 ERA/1.24 WHIP. There's a lot to like here when he and the Marlins are being offered up at prices like this.

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Our Pick

Miami +137 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.74)

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