Miami @ BOSTON
Miami +145 over BOSTON

Pinnacle +147 BET365 +145 SportsInteraction +146 BetOnlin+145 Bookmaker +145

Posted at 2:45 PM EST. 

Miami +145 over BOSTON

7:10 PM EST, Martín Pérez (LHP - BOS) has earned this billing with his improved skills, especially lately—2.22 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 25% K%, 18% K-BB%, 3.58 xERA over his last five games but we’re not buying. At the age of 30 and after posting nine years of below average skills and results, dude has not found that special sauce that turns cat food into caviar. His swing and miss rate is still low at 8.3%. His groundball rate is still below average at 40%. He has two wins in nine starts with two quality starts and now he’s priced like he’s Hyun-jin Ryu. Dude is on a current run of five decent outings but after years of unrosterable’s xERA, xWHIP, and "B" consistency, it just means more of the same is coming right up and that's not a good thing. Sell high on Martin Pérez because he cannot be favored in this range...EVA.

Cody Poteet (RHP - MIA) is a pitchability guy with some major league floor in a swingman capacity. 6'1" and 190 pounds, Miami's 2015 fourth-rounder has a four-pitch mix highlighted by his fastball and slider. There's also a curve and change in here, and everything hovers around average sans the straight change which still lags and means he's probably more of a two times through the lineup kinda guy. At least that’s what the scouting report says. While not a prospect that basically any evaluators noted in the Marlins system, an interesting wrinkle is that Poteet showed up this spring sustaining 96 mph deep into his starts when he previously was a low-90s guy. That increased velocity perhaps could help the change play enough to allow him leverage to stick in the rotation, but it also helps raise his floor. Poteet struck out 10 batters in 5.2 IP in his first start this year for Triple-A East Jacksonville, so there's some intriguing things going on in the profile.

He has started three games for the Marlins and is throwing strikes and getting guys out consistently. He has not looked a bit out of place but what sticks out to us is that this kid trusts himself to do what he’s always done and that’s to stay ahead in the count and keep hitters off balance. Poteet and the Marlins may not win here but we’ll reiterate that Martin Perez is an outstanding sell-high candidate.

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Our Pick

Miami +145 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.90)

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