Kansas City @ MINNESOTA
Kansas City +147 over MINNESOTA

Pinnacle +147 BET365 +145 SportsInteraction +146 BetOnlin+145 Bookmaker +145

Posted at 2:45 PM EST. 

Kansas City +147 over MINNESOTA

8:10 PM EST. Allow us to turn back the clock to early April when the Royals were winning and the Twins were losing. You see, the days and nights were bordering on frigid back then and frigid weather is not good for teams that rely on the long ball to win baseball games. There were a lot more underdogs winning in April and early May and it’s not unreasonable to suggest weather was surely a factor. Well, the weather has taken a turn for the worse in the Midwest and on the East Coast and that means playing in 8 to 12 C conditions and that has to benefit the dog here.

Kris Bubic (LHP - KC) is a decent prospect that does a good job at limiting hard contact (87.1 mph exit velocity) and keeping the ball on the ground. While that gives him a sturdy floor, there's just not much upside here. Mediocre fastball velocity means he has to rely on change-up to get whiffs. That's not the arsenal to facilitate growth but there is no question that he’s as good (or as bad) as Minnesota’s starter, which makes the Royals a very decent value play.

Randy Dobnak (RHP - MIN) has appeared in eight games this year with just one coming as a starter. Last year he provided a fortunate win total given skills and batters-faced/game, but otherwise didn't fare as well second time through the league. His command went from merely below-average to poor, while velocity and swinging strikes decreased on all three pitches. Here’s a fifth rotation starter with a swing and miss rate of 8% that is in there because Kenta Maeda is on the 10 day IL and not because he earned it. This career minor-leaguer that has shuffled to and from the minors for years is priced today like he’s Kenta Maeda and we must attempt to take advantage. Cold weather helps.

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Our Pick

Kansas City +147 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.94)

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