Pinnacle +125 BET365 +120 SportsInteraction +129 BetOnline +132 Bookmaker +130

Posted at 1:45 PM EST. 

Atlanta +125 over BOSTON

7:10 PM EST. Drew Smyly (LHP - ATL) has played for so many teams in the decade since he was drafted that it might be hard to keep track, but he has landed with a contender in Atlanta. Smyly is not great, but he is not Pivetta’s inferior either. For the most part, you know what you are going to get with Smyly. His 37-37 lifetime record and career 4.18 ERA supports that. Would we want to spot a big price with a guy like Smyly? Hell no, but we never have to be in that situation. Just know that the game opened as a pick-em last night, which once again points us in the direction of the true value.

Boston is miles ahead of preseason projections, as few had them contending for the top spot in the East. As the calendar gets ready to turn to June, Boston is just a half game back of the surging Rays, thus the Red Sox stock just keeps climbing. So, too, is starter Nick Pivetta’s (RHP - BOS) stock, who brings a 5-0 record, backed by a 3.59 ERA into this start. While it looks good on the surface, Pivetta is playing with fire, as he sports a 4.53 BB/9. His 9.44 K’s/9 may have once been considered great, but that is no longer the case with Major League hitters swinging at just about anything that comes close to crossing the plate. From everyone's favorite sleeper to forgotten man, Pivetta has seemingly re-emerged but his swing and miss rate has waned with a less effective curveball, his iffy control has dragged K-BB%, and his disaster history reminds us of past scars. If you bet Boston today with Pivetta going, you would be buying both when their stocks are soaring. That doesn’t come recommended.

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