CHICAGO -1 vs St. Louis
CHICAGO -1 +100 over St. Louis

Pinnacle -1½ -102 BET365 -1½ +100 SportsInteraction -1½ -107 BetOnlin-1½ -101 Bookmaker -1½ -105

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. 

CHICAGO -1½ +100 over St. Louis

2:10 PM EST. Carlos Rodón (LHP - CHW) has posted ridiculous numbers in seven starts so far this year. A former top prospect way back in 2015, one can scroll through his projections every year and find small amounts of growth while waiting for his breakout. Why should we believe it this time? Lots of reasons.

Rodón’s K% has surged to elite levels (62 K’s in 43 IP), better than anything he's ever posted before. His swinging strike rate supports the increase. Fastball velocity is up 2 mph, not just above last year, but above any year since his debut. Control has been an issue in the past, but BB% rate has improved from career norms, backed by decreasing Ball%. A favorable strand rate, along with tiny hit% and HR/F have enabled his extreme ERA and WHIP, but xERA, xWHIP, and dominant starts all support his elite performance to date.

The 28-year-old lefty relies on a two-pitch mix vLHB: four-seam and slider. Versus RHB, he adds a changeup and throws fewer sliders. The main driver of improvement this year has been in his fastball. Rodón worked to improve velocity last offseason, and the increased velocity has enabled nearly 2.5 inches of additional rise versus his previous rate. As a result, he's racking up whiffs at an 18% rate, versus a 6% rate from 2018-2020. He's leaning on it heavily, too, throwing it 58% of the time. In Rodón's case, the narrative and the results line up, and he looks to be set to finally achieve the potential that made him the third-overall pick in 2014. This might be the last chance to get him at any kind of a discount.

You know what’s funny? John Gant (RHP - STL) totes a 2.04 ERA with a 1.56 WHIP. That’s a near impossible feat, as it does not correlate. Find starters with WHIP’s above 1.50 and we’ll show you starters with ERA’s above 5.00. Gant has negotiated his way around with the help of some extreme luck. He has walked 28 batters in 40 frames while fanning just 32. His 87% strand rate is among the highest in the business and is the only reason his ERA is so unsustainably low. This turn against the South Side presents a different challenge. Chicago owns a .790 OPS—and an 11.3% walk rate—over the last two weeks and we now get to attack at a discount because of Gant’s sparkling surface ERA.

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Our Pick

CHICAGO -1 +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)