Baltimore @ MINNESOTA
Baltimore +173 over MINNESOTA

Pinnacle +173 BET365 +170 SportsInteraction +129 BetOnlin+132 Bookmaker +130

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. 

Baltimore +173 over MINNESOTA

1:10 PM EST. The Twins win three in a row and now they’re priced like they’re the Dodgers playing the Pirates? We don’t think so. Michael Pineda (RHP - MIN) comes in with a misleading 2.79 ERA and now he’s priced like he’s Gerrit Cole? We don’t think so. Michael Pineda has 29 wins in his last 89 starts with an xERA of 4.34 and he’s priced today like he can’t be beat. If the Twinkies win today, don’t color us as surprised because of course they can win but Pineda, with his 89% strand rate and average stuff does not warrant being priced like this on his best day.

Like the bulk of the O's starters, Jorge Lopez's (RHP - BAL) poor 1-5 record is covering some capable work. For Lopez, he sports and xERA that is 1.12 points lower than his surface number. Dude has also seen a huge uptick in his strikeouts, which are up 3.53 K/9 this season over last. His swinging strike rate is up from last year too. Lopez brings five pitches to the mound with his fastball hitting 95 MPH. His sinker is his best offspeed offering and his 46.9% groundball rate supports that. Lopez was a tough luck loser last time out where he gave up just two earned runs on three hits across five innings. Most impressively he punched out eight Washington batters. Jorge Lopez is just as good or just as bad as Pineda and is without question the true value play in this matchup.

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Our Pick

Baltimore +173 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.46)