Baltimore @ MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA -1 -109 over Baltimore

Pinnacle -1½ -109 BET365 -1½ -110 SportsInteraction -1½ -110 BetOnlin-1½ -110 Bookmaker -1½ -110

Posted at 12:45 PM EST. 

MINNESOTA -1½ -109 over Baltimore

7:40 PM EST. Yesterday we wrote about the difficult start that the Twins have suffered through thus far and that it is perhaps time to start getting behind this talented team. You see, Minnesota is batting Baltimore and Colorado for the worst record in the majors, thus its stock is low and therefore, we’re bound to see a correction to the good. That makes the Twinkies very playable and we’ll therefore continue to ride this train until further notice.

A slight uptick in walks has pushed Jose Berrios' (RHP - MIN) ERA north and his skills south, but xBB% forecasts a pullback to prior baseline. Given his steady surge in swinging strikes and jump in velocity, we can't assume his growth curve has flattened and ace consistency gives him a high floor. Berríos' lack of improvement boils down to struggles against LHB in particular, as he's managed a listless 8% K-BB% and allowed a .961 OPS against. Lefties are not being fooled by his arsenal, as his swing & miss rate rates on three of his four offerings have dipped. Not to worry. Berrios has succeeded against lefties with these tools before, so it might be a good time to buy. Furthermore, the O’s are second last in the majors in OPS and Slg against righties so their heavy right-handed lineup does not bode well here.

Dean Kremer (RHP - BAL) Logged just 19 innings above Double-A prior to his 2020 MLB debut. Dude utilizes four pitches with the curve being his best swing-and-miss offering but that’s not saying a lot, as his overall swing and miss rate is a weak 8.5%, which does not support his 32 K’s in 34 innings. Kremer lacks overpowering stuff and relies on locating pitches, which makes him nothing more than an innings eater on his very best day. Dean Kremer has zero wins in eight starts. His groundball rate is 32% (also weak), thus his fly-ball rate is high at 46%. Now throw in a 1.59 WHIP, a 6.22 xERA and then watch the Twinkies go to town.

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Our Pick

MINNESOTA -1 -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)