Pinnacle +143 BET365 +140 SportsInteraction +145 BetOnline +141 Bookmaker +140

Posted at 2:30 PM EST. 

Seattle +145 over OAKLAND

10:05 PM EST. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP - SEA) was -160 favorite last game out against the Tigers and ended up on the wrong end of a 4-1 final. Dude now goes from a -160 favorite to a +140 underdog in the span of one start. We suggested that Seattle and Kikuchi were both overpriced that day and now we’re suggesting the opposite. Kikuchi's surface stats in the majors have been a little underwhelming, but he’s showing some serious improvement, which is backed by the underlying numbers. Dude has a lot more zip on his fastball, is missing bats at a much higher rate (17.7% swing and miss rate), and has significantly reduced the hard contact against him. Add in an elite 55% groundball rate over his last five starts and you have an ace-like starter taking back a price he shouldn’t be.

Moneyball is in first place in the AL West with a 28-20 record. What’s so remarkable about Oakland’s misleading record is that its runs differential is -11. That mark is equivalent to teams like Texas (22-27), Minnesota (17-29), Philadelphia (23-24), Washington (20-23) and Cincinnati (20-25). The point is that there is a strong correlation to being outscored and having a losing record but the A’s are defying that correlation and it is therefore reasonable to expect regression.

Frankie Montas (RHP - OAK) is all set to go for the A’s and he’ll bring his 4.79 ERA and 1.40 WHIP into this start. There is more to say about Montas but we’ll leave it for another time because this wager is not about fading Montas. It’s about fading Oakland because its record does not equal its performance and because they’re overpriced here.

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