Milwaukee @ CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI +105 over Milwaukee

Pinnacle +104 BET365 +105 SportsInteraction +105 BetOnline +104 Bookmaker +100

Posted at 12:15 PM EST. 

CINCINNATI +105 over Milwaukee

1:10 PM EST. Freddy Peralta (RHP - MIL) supports a strong strikeout rating with his 16% swing & miss rate and 39% K%. Although he has a 2.40 ERA with a 2.67 ERA in his last five games, his 52% fly-ball rate versus the Reds' top-five OPS vs. RHP could provide an ERA challenge. While Peralta can create plenty of whiffs, his 11% BB% is in the 28th percentile in 2021. Furthermore, dude has a career 1.46 WHIP on the road. On their very best day, Milwaukee and Freddy cannot be favored on the road In Cincinnati when Luis Castillo (RHP - CIN) is the starter.

Castillo created more swings-and-misses in his May 18 start vs. SF, which featured 11 strikeouts while allowing three earned runs in five innings but this isn’t the Giants. You see, the Brewers have a 26.1% K% when facing RHP, and their bottom-five OPS vs. RHP doesn’t bode well either. In 13 IP vs. Milwaukee in 2020, Castillo had a 1.42 ERA (2.49 xERA). With better fortune than his current 59% strand rate and now facing a team that has never seen a pitch they didn’t like, Castillo and his 3.52 outstanding career xERA cannot be an underdog here. Wrong side favored.


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Our Pick

CINCINNATI +105 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)