Pinnacle -1½ + 137 BET365 -1½ +140 SportsInteraction -1½ +140 BetOnline -1½ +140 Bookmaker -1½ +140

Posted at 12:30 PM EST. 

CINCINNATI -1½ +140 over Milwaukee

4:10 PM EST. Sonny Gray (RHP - CIN) is looking to rebound from allowing 2 HR in a rough start against the Giants. The Reds were laboring badly until The Cure Crew showed last night. No offense has been worse the last two weeks than that of the Milwaukee Brewers (.587 OPS). The Brewers have a left-leaning lineup which is struggling against right-handed pitchers (.641 OPS). Gray is tough on lefty bats, and owns a 3.14 xERA over his last five games started...and he's a true ace.

Brett Anderson’s (LHP - MIL) brittle arm tossed more innings over two months in 2020 than he did in four seasons earlier in his career. Anderson’s groundball lean limits his blowup risk, but it's becoming more than offset by a lack of whiffs and eroding velocity. When we look at his groundball rate (his only redeeming skill), we see that’s starting to decline too (52% over his first two starts, then 44% over his next two, then 41% over his last two). Anderson has made six starts and has a lousy 14 K’s in 24 frames. His swing and miss rate his past two games is 4.7%, which is the lowest in the majors over any two game start by any pitcher. Anderson’s dominant start/disaster start split and ugly xERA reinforce his limited upside. Dude's workload is starting to take a toll. Brett Anderson and the Crew are in the same underdog price range as Minnesota with Kenta Maeda going and that, my friends, is beyond absurd. Cincinnati is today’s most undervalued favorite.

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