Baltimore @ WASHINGTON
Baltimore +140 over WASHINGTON

Pinnacle +140 BET365 +135 SportsInteraction +135 BetOnline +138 Bookmaker +135

Posted at 12:30 PM EST. 

Baltimore +140 over WASHINGTON

4:05 PM EST. This wager is twofold. First, we get to back a starter that was on our radar to begin the year and second, we’ll continue to fade Jon Lester (LHP - WAS).

Bruce Zimmermann (LHP - BAL) was recalled from Class AAA Norfolk on Sunday, May 16. Zimmermann was demoted by the Orioles two weeks ago after a series of rough starts. Overall, the lefty had a 5.24 xERA over 30 innings. Zimmermann did have a nice return on May 16. He went 5.2 innings, yielding two hits, one walk and one run while striking out six. What we liked about Zimmermann back in April was his ability to change speeds and locate. He has five different pitches that he can throw for strikes and he’s certainly not the first pitcher to struggle in his initial shot in the big leagues. He’s now back for the second time and we’re pretty sure the demotion and subsequent call-up did him nothing but good.

Of the 30 pitchers slated to start today, Lester’s strikeout per nine is the third worst on the board. His 82% strand rate is among the highest. There is a correlation between a pitcher with a high number of strikeouts and high number of LOB’s because strikeouts fail to put the baserunners in motion. Lester is not striking out men and therefore his strand rate should be much lower but it is not. Jon Lester is benefitting from some extreme luck and it’s not sustainable. Lester has 14 K’s in 21 frames with a 36% groundball rate and a 88 MPH fastball and today he’s priced like it’s 2011.

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Our Pick

Baltimore +140 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.80)