Pinnacle -1½ +141 BET365 -1½ +140 SportsInteraction --1½ +140 BetOnline -1½ +140 Bookmaker -1½ +140

Posted at 5:00 PM EST. 

Chicago -1½ +140 over ST. LOUIS

8:10 PM EST. After a rough start to 2021, there are signs that Kyle Hendricks (RHP - CHC) might finally be coming around, as he's sporting a 17% K-BB% and 4.04 xERA over his last five games, and a 17% K-BB% and 3.62 xERA over three starts in May. The Cardinals' offense has been middle-of-the-pack both overall and at home but this wager is not about getting behind Hendricks.

Where to start? On the surface, Carlos Martinez (RHP - STL) may appear to have come all the way back from whatever was ailing him, as he has posted a 2.66 ERA over his last three starts, all wins. Readers of this space know better, of course, as we have targeted Martinez again and again and we will not stop here. When you buy low and sell high, as we preach, you have to be willing to trust the underlying numbers and in that regard, Carlos Martínez currently owns a bunch of career-worst skills to go along with a 5.08 xERA. Of the 30 pitchers starting today, Martinez has the lowest strike rate among all of them. Martinez’s BABIP is an extreme, luck-driven .232 and it’s only a matter of time before he gets blown up badly.

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