Miami @ PHILADELPHIA
Miami +114 over PHILADELPHIA

Pinnacle +114 BET365 +105 SportsInteraction +106 BetOnlin+108 Bookmaker +105

Posted at 5:15 PM EST. 

Miami +114 over PHILADELPHIA

7:05 PM EST. The Marlins dropped the opener last night 8-3, but that final score looks much worse for the road side than it actually was. You see, Miami was up 3-1 after its half of the eighth inning before the Phillies lit up Dylan Floro and John Curtiss for a combined seven runs in the bottom of eight. Easy winner, Philly. Tonight, the Marlins will send lefty Trevor Rogers (LHP - MIA) to the bump and he's been great this season posting a 5-2 mark behind 57 punchouts in 44 innings. Hell, he's allowed just 49 baserunners all season. Although he's not priced as one of the best young arms in the game, Rogers is. He was the 13th overall pick in 2017 and has a heater that touches 97 mph. He attacks the strike zone without mercy and boasts a 15.4% swing and miss rate. That's 5.4% higher than his mound opponent today, Zach Eflin (RHP - PHI).

Eflin cannot be priced like this against a superior starter. It's not like the Fish are dregs either. They've had success against Eflin, who has a 4.50 ERA in 10 career starts versus Miami. As for the Marlins’ bullpen? It's still the fifth best in baseball and second best in the National League with a 3.29 ERA and so last night's blow up is easy to overlook. Meanwhile, the Phils have the 25th ranked pen in MLB. Even if Eflin pitches a gem (a huge if), no team is ever out of it with the stiffs throwing behind him. If the pitching edge wasn't enough, the market has taken a position on this game and the price on Miami is even more generous now than it was when it opened.

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Our Pick

Miami +114 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.28)

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