Detroit @ SEATTLE
Detroit +108 over SEATTLE

Pinnacle +108 BET365 -105 SportsInteraction +105 BetOnline +106 Bookmaker +100

Posted at 4:30 PM EST

Detroit +108 over SEATTLE

10:10 PM EST. To the unsuspecting eye, Spencer Turnbull’s xERA/WHIP do not show much growth but the underlying skills say otherwise. Turnbull has an elite groundball rate of 58%. Dude has always been a groundball specialist who has successfully limited home runs and now he’s added more swinging strikes and less BB%. He’s only walked six batters in 25 frames while whiffing 22.

As the Tigers continue to fly under the radar, we’ll dip into their well again with this beauty. Beauty because Justin Dunn (RHP - SEA) comes in with a 3.72 ERA after six starts and has just one loss on the year. Justin Dunn represents perhaps this year’s biggest illusion. Where do we start? First, Dunn’s Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) is .205. To put that into a bit more perspective, league average is .295. For a little more perspective, three other starters that are going today, Sean Manaea, Eduardo Rodriguez and Luis Castillo have BABIP marks of .331, .327 and .380 respectively. Every hard hit ball hit off Dunn is landing in someone’s glove. Furthermore. Dunn has a very weak swing and miss rate of 8.2% and to make matters worse, he has walked 20 batters while whiffing 24 in 29 frames. To top off his super-trifecta of good luck, Justin Dunn has a strand rate of 80%, not to mention a groundball/fly-ball split of 30%/54%. Finally, to complete this sleight of hand, we’ll turn to Dunn’s xERA of 6.26 (8.40 in his last game) to remind you how luck plays a big part in outcomes. Justin Dunn's luck has been off the charts and it cannot last much longer.

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Our Pick

Detroit +108 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.16)