N.Y. Mets @ TAMPA BAY
N.Y. Mets -1 +155 over TAMPA BAY

Pinnacle -1½ +154 BET365 -1½ +155 SportsInteraction -1½ +155 BetOnlin-1½ +155 Bookmaker -1½ +155

Posted at 11:30 AM EST

N.Y. Mets -1½ +155 over TAMPA BAY

1:10 PM EST. Marcus Stroman (RHP - NYM) keeps the ball on the ground with a 57% groundball rate, and his 3.44 xERA points to a strong ERA result here. When facing RHP, the Rays have a slightly below-average OPS. In 24 away innings in 2021, Stroman has a 23% K% with a 1.50 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. His recent form with a 2.54 ERA in his last five games along with his 5% BB% and 1.03 WHIP bodes well here also.

Josh Fleming (RHP - TB) evenly priced against Stroman and the Mets is incorrect. This Fringe-y prospect has benefitted from nothing but good luck with his 2.73 ERA after 20 innings pitched. Dude has 16 K’s in those 30 frames along with 11 free passes issued for a horrible ratio. Last year, he was limited to twice through the order, because this skill set or lack thereof needs everything to click to succeed. Fleming has an xERA of 5.22 to go along with his weak 7.9% swing & miss rate, thus making him a strong candidate for an ERA correction.

We’re playing the Mets at -1½ +150 for 1.6 units. That leaves 0.4 units left from our traditional 2 unit wager. However, we can get +600 for the Mets to win by exactly one run (winning margin), which will cover us if the Mets win by just one.

Mets

Officially

N.Y. Mets -1½ +155 for 1.6 units

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Our Pick

N.Y. Mets -1 +155 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.10)