Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 3:00 PM EST
PITTSBURGH +174 over San Francisco
6:35 PM EST. Damn straight we’ll take our chances with the Pirates at this price. The sizable difference between Kevin Gausman's (RHP - SF) 1.97 ERA and 3.59 xERA means he's due for some regression, but his overall skills are very close to his career-best performance from 2020, and the Pirates, with a bottom-10 .649 OPS that has fallen to .599 over the last two weeks, aren't likely to get that ERA correction started. That’s what the numbers say but prognosticators have been using that formula of what should happen forever and it seldom works out that way. The more logical reasoning is that Pittsaburgh’s numbers will improve and Gausman’s numbers will regress.
Miguel Yajure (RHP - PIT) is one of the many interesting IFA arms the Yankees have signed and developed over the past six years. 6'1" and 220 pounds, Yajure has a Tommy John surgery already under the hood and entered the Pirates system as part of the 2020 trade for Jameson Taillon (RHP - NYY). The 22-year-old has progressed on the back of solid feel for pitching rather than standout stuff. As he's come back from his 2017 surgery, Yajure's velocity has crept up to the mid-90s and is sitting 93 more regularly now. He now operates with five distinct pitches (fastball, curve, change, cutter, and slider), all of them hanging around solid-average to above-average. There's still more seasoning to be done to get him humming in a starting role, and it seems that Yajure has had difficulty transitioning in and out of the bullpen. Still, there's plus command projection in the profile, and should he find any more heat and/or pushes a secondary into solid plus, he would easily eclipse his projection. It might be a bumpy ride, but there's a lot of long-term variables to bet on here and again, we’ll gladly take our chances at this price.
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PITTSBURGH +174 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.48)