Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 3:00 PM EST
Texas +197 over HOUSTON
8:10 PM EST. We’re very tempted to play Texas on the Alternate run-line but we’ll settle for this outrageous price against Zach Greinke (RHP - HOU). Greinke and the Astronauts are both overpriced here to a large degree, thus setting up one of the biggest overlays of the young season. Of course, that doesn’t mean the Rangers will win but Texas has been playing some decent ball all season.
What are we going to write about Greinke that we haven’t already covered? His ERA is well below his xERA, but he has shown throughout his career that his xERA overpredicts his ERA. Greinke's never been a power pitcher. He has been known as a thinking man's pitcher but that does not mean that he should be priced in this range. Balls are being hit harder off him this year than years prior and he’s always a risk to get knocked out early after giving up a bunch of runs.
Wes Benjamin (LHP - TEX) has made a slow yet steady climb through the minors since being a fifth round pick out of Kansas University in 2014. He required Tommy John surgery immediately out of college but was able to start making progress in 2016. His career numbers over 443.2 IP include a 4.26 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 8.1 K’s/9, and 2.7 BB’s/9. The fairly low walk rate is nice to see, but on the flip side, hitters have managed a .272 oppBA off of him -- and in 2019 in the PCL he gave up a whopping 24 HRs. His pitch selection consists of his two primary offerings -- a low-90s mph fastball and a mid-80s change-- and then his secondary choices which are a slider and curve. Overall, his profile points to a pitcher with a mid-rotation ceiling. He’s appeared in three games this year, all in relief and he was uncharacteristically wild with six walks in five frames. Perhaps he’ll be more comfortable starting but regardless, this wager has nothing to do with backing Benjamin and everything to do with taking back an absurd tag on Texas to beat the Astronauts.
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Texas +197 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.94)