Philadelphia @ WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON -1 +190 over Philadelphia

Pinnacle -1½ +190 BET365 -1½ +165 SportsInteraction -1½ +175 BetOnlin-1½ +180 Bookmaker -1½

Posted at 11:00 AM EST

WASHINGTON -½ +165 over Philadelphia

1:05 PM EST. Sometimes you just have to follow the money. When the overnights came out, Philadelphia was in the -115 to -122 range but that price has been coming down all morning and we have to wonder why. Since baseball odds are predicated on the starters, Zach Eflin (RHP - PHI) should be a significant favorite over Patrick Corbin but he’s not:   

Corbin 29 IP - 14 BB - 20 K’s -7.36 ERA - 5.55 xERA.

Eflin: 45 IP - 3 BB - 42 K’s - 3.38 ERA - 3.65 xERA

Does this look like a pick-em matchup to you? Are you running to the window to wager on Corbin and the Nats to beat Philadelphia today? Corbin is among the least appealing starters in the game while Eflin has been dealing it, not only this year, but last year as well. 

We’re always mindful of something that doesn’t look right and this one fits the bill to a large degree. There is no point in going into all the metrics or stats, as this one is not priced right based on the starters and teams, which means the sportsbooks are taking a strong position here. The public will be hammering the Phillies at this very cheap price right up until the first pitch and we can’t blame them. If Philadelphia was -130 to -140 like they should be, we’d probably be playing the Phillies but man, does this one smell fishy or what?

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Our Pick

WASHINGTON -1 +190 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.80)

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